A better weather map

It’s no secret that an accurate weather forecast is hard to come by in the Smokies. But after two months of intense measurements at more than 100 stations around the region, scientists working with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration are crunching data that could change that. 

Ana Barros, professor of earth and ocean science at Duke University and principal investigator on the Smokies project, has been recording weather data with her lab since October 2013, with collection ending this fall. It will take a couple years to fully analyze the information, which will also be used to better forecasts worldwide, but the lab has already made some interesting findings. 

Foremost is the importance of low-hanging clouds to Smokies hydrology. Because radars at the nearest National Weather Service Station—Greenville, S.C.—have to be pointed high up to keep the mountains from blocking them, the radars often miss much of the weather originating from lower-hanging clouds. But when rain falls from high clouds and passes through lower ones, its intensity increases, accounting for many of those unforeseen downpours many a hiker has suffered. 

The project could also illuminate how weather impacts where plant and animal communities form—and visa versa. Aerosols, tiny particles suspended in the air that moisture congregates around, are vital for rainfall to occur. But Barros wants to know where the aerosols in Smokies air come from. They could be pollutants, dust or possibly, volatile chemicals produced by the trees themselves. If tests show that’s the source, it would be a case of self-fulfilling prophecy: the trees need moisture, and moisture needs aerosols to turn into rain. 

“We’re going to really try to put all of this information together,” Barros said, “and come up with a big picture.”