The Way Things Change

Standing in a forest in the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains in western North Carolina, it’s difficult to imagine anything interrupting the familiar sounds of nature. 

A cheery bird calling to its mate. 

A chipmunk scurrying up an old oak tree.

A deer’s hooves crunching through the crispy leaf litter. 

Nestled on the western edge of Appalachia in neighboring east Tennessee, a sleepy little village in Blount County guards the historic Great Smoky Mountains National Park’s west entrance.

This village—aptly named Townsend—has a current population of under 500. The handful of gas stations that dot the main drag turn off their lights at 10 p.m. sharp—sometimes even 9:59, as I’ve learned firsthand.

The village has a single stoplight, and no current plans to change that. Here, too, is a nice escape from the hustle and bustle of what feels like the rest of the world. 

They don’t call Townsend “The Peaceful Side of the Smokies” for nothing.

That May Soon Change

In October, a long-time acquaintance living in New Orleans reached out to ask if she and her family, with dog in tow, could shelter at my place for the next few days as Hurricane Delta threatened to wreak havoc on her city.

Are hurricanes in Louisiana a new phenomenon? No, not at all. Hurricane season has been a “thing” for the Gulf Coast for as long as, well, there has been a Gulf coast.

The difference, these days, is that these hurricanes are becoming far more intense and are occurring far more frequently for the taste of many Louisianans.

That can have tremendous long-term impact on what life is like here in the mountains.

“There’s now evidence that the unnatural effects of human-caused global warming are already making hurricanes stronger and more destructive,” according to Yale Climate Connections, a non-partisan, multimedia service providing daily broadcast radio programming with an aim to “help citizens and institutions understand how the changing climate is already affecting our lives,” according to its website. “The latest research shows the trend is likely to continue as long as the climate continues to warm.”

Unfortunately, global warming is just one aspect of climate change, and hurricanes aren’t the only issue facing coastal residents these days.

Climate change causes rising sea levels, and therefore rising groundwater, according to a study referred to on ClimateCentral.org, an “independent organization of leading scientists and journalists researching and reporting the facts about our changing climate and its impact on the public.”

According to the study, as sea level rises, so will groundwater levels, and since underground infrastructure—including sewer pipes and utility equipment—was built with historical groundwater levels in mind, this could lead to expensive headaches for coastal communities.

It’s only a matter of time before you realize that you can only rebuild so many times on a floodplain. At some point, you need to break the cycle of flood-rebuild-repeat. 

So those residents, and others elsewhere, look elsewhere to live. Some are looking to the mountains as a possible new home.

Meanwhile, along our country’s west coast, severe droughts are displacing thousands of residents, especially as temperatures rise and wildfires spread.

The Center for Climate and Energy Solutions states: “Climate change increases the odds of worsening drought in many parts of the United States and the world in the decades ahead. Regions such as the U.S southwest are at particular risk.”

Why This Is Happening Now

What is causing these sharp increases in dramatic climate conditions?

Lots of reasons, but overwhelmingly, people are causing it.

“Normal” climate change occurs over tens of thousands of years, experts say. The Earth’s climate is always changing, and always has been. 

The difference these days is that man-made climate change is severely speeding up the process, according to National Geographic. 

It has been so ever since the Industrial Revolution, when technology changed everything.

“Human activities have contributed substantially to climate change by adding CO2 and other heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere” according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. “These greenhouse gas emissions have increased the greenhouse effect and caused Earth’s surface temperature to rise.”

Most of the world’s scientists agree. 

Noticing a Trend

Kathy Hmielewski, with Century 21 Legacy in Maryville, Tennessee - someone who has been in the local real estate business for 20 years - says she has seen increasing numbers of people moving into our area from coastal regions. 

“It’s not as easy as hopping in the car and heading north whenever a hurricane threatens to hit,” Hmielewski said. “Families have to deal with being trapped in their cars in stopped traffic for hours on I-75 North—often with young children—wondering if they’ll even find a hotel vacancy.” 

Another 20-year pro, Jeff Schoenfield of All Pro Realtors, based out of Sevier County, Tennessee, has seen an increase in relocation to the East Tennessee/Western North Carolina area. “These new buyers are coming from areas such as Florida, New York, New Jersey, and the coastal Carolinas,” Schoenfield said.

Many want to get away from harsh climate conditions and relocate to higher elevations with milder weather conditions, escaping prolonged droughts out west and severe flooding along the coasts.

Essentially, they are seeking climate-resilient locations.

Sea level residents want to relocate to higher, cooler terrain. Those in the frequent paths of hurricanes and other bad storms want a more stable weather pattern. Those living in extreme drought conditions want to flee increasing wildfire activity. 

What Does That Mean?

That sleepy little village of Townsend happens to be situated at 1,066 feet above sea level, hundreds of miles from any ocean. It perfectly fits the bill.

Not to mention the fact that Appalachia happens to be breathtakingly beautiful—with 360-degree mountain views, acting as a living gateway to America’s most visited National Park.

Wildfires do occur here, but not nearly as frequently or as severely as in the western United States. Ask any East Tennessean and they will certainly recall the widespread fires of 2016—most notably the Chimney Tops fire—which burned hundreds of acres in the National Park and reached into the surrounding towns of Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge.  

Although severe drought conditions and sustained high winds certainly aggravated the circumstances of what can now be considered “the perfect storm,” that incident was human caused, and two juveniles were eventually arrested for arson in connection with the fire.

Like it or not, this charming little region in southern Appalachia is now on the front lines of absorbing families wanting to escape their current climate conditions.

And then there’s Covid

Lately, additional reasons are adding fuel to out-of-state residents’ desire to migrate to this area.

Over the past several months, Schoenfield said, he’s seen an even more dramatic influx of clients due to the current Covid-19 pandemic than due to climate change alone. “People want to settle down somewhere with less hurricanes, milder temps, even less civil unrest. They’re starting to realize that they can do their jobs anywhere as long as they have broadband internet. People are realizing how portable their job is.”

People are trying to social distance themselves from others, and with good reason. So if technology now allows them to virtually work from anywhere, why not here?

“What may start out as a temporary change of scenery to lower risk of exposure and crime from the more populated Jersey Shore area, for example, may end up becoming a permanent change of residence here,” Schoenfield said.

Not only is his business growing, but it’s changing. He’s seen a lot more Arizona and New York license plates than in the past. “People are moving here that would never have considered” before.

Basically, people are looking for a less dramatic place to call home. One with less people, lower property and income taxes, fewer hurricanes and even tornadoes.

Somewhere that feels safer.

According to Dr. Stephanie Benjamin, professor of Retail, Hospitality and Tourism Management at the University of Tennessee, both Western North Carolina and Tennessee are “places of refuge for a lot of folks.”

Benjamin is originally from Florida herself, moved to New York for a while, and now calls Tennessee home.

She says many of her family and friends had originally wished to leave Florida to get away from densely populated high-crime areas, but are now even more motivated to leave due to the weather.

“Here, there is a lower cost of living, the winters are less harsh, and it’s not nearly as humid here as is in other areas of the country,” Benjamin said. “Basically, you get more for your money.”

According to Benjamin, tourism here is also booming compared to other areas, as people look for recreation during the pandemic. “This area isn’t super highly populated, but you can still get takeout and go back to your hotel to eat it.”

And while this area has always seen a lot of both tourists and “half-backs” - people who initially move from the Northeast to Florida but later end up settling down halfway in between - these influxes are certainly not forced migrations by any means. 

Sooner Rather Than Later

As a growing global population most certainly threatens to increase the effects of climate change, U.S. residents may be forced to move. 

A non-profit project founded in 2015 called Climate Refugees, whose website states that it was ‘created to bring attention and action to help people displaced across borders as a result of climate change’ warns that this is already happening on a global scale.

“Every day vulnerable people are displaced and forced to migrate due to impacts generated by climate change. This isn’t something that will happen, this is something happening now,” it says.

And forced migration is never a good thing, said Amali Tower, founder and executive director of Climate Refugees. 

“First of all, there’s certainly nothing positive about forced migration for any group or under any circumstances because, well, you’re being forced to migrate because of some external push factor—whether that be climate change or conflict,” she said.

“In conflict or climate change, there are always multiple drivers of migration,” she said. It’s difficult to pinpoint climate change “as one exact reason for why people are fleeing across borders, but if they do, they would not be considered refugees, since climate change is not one of the protected grounds covered under the 1951 Refugee Convention.”

Matters further complicated

Increased construction for new housing— already in short demand in an area constrained by mountainous topography—can be challenging. 

Current infrastructure in the small towns of Gatlinburg and Townsend isn’t set up to handle many more residents, officials say, but that doesn’t mean the neighboring areas can’t. 

Maryville is just a few curvy miles from Townsend, just a short distance from McGhee Tyson Airport, East Tennessee’s largest metropolitan airport. This makes it an attractive location for those whose jobs or families have them traveling often by air.

Almost any shopping you could imagine is located in Maryville.

So you get all the modern conveniences of a larger city complete with stunning mountain views.

Speaking of larger cities, consider Knoxville. This up-and-coming city with a current population of a little under 200,000 provides the best of both worlds—it’s not as large and crowded as Nashville, less than 200 miles to its west, but it still offers many of the amenities, including much-needed employment opportunities.

Regardless of what particular area people end up in, increased demand for housing causes real estate prices to continue to rise, which may be frustrating for those native to the area, but exciting for those wishing to profit from the trend.

According to Schoenfield, “A house in my neighborhood recently sold for what I considered a wishful asking price. Then it turned around and sold for even more.”

The cozy little log home I recently purchased in Townsend had been on the market for less than 24 hours yet attracted several highly interested parties, including a couple from out of state headed in to tour it in the middle of a stay-at-home orders during the height of the pandemic.

This isn’t just a local problem.

“The national median asking price on Realtor.com in September 2020 was $350,000, up 11.1 percent compared to last year. Prices could rise even further due to heavy buyer competition and a significant shortage of supply. Housing inventory continues to be constrained by stronger-than-normal buyer demand and little new inventory coming on to the market,” says a report by Marco Santerelli of Norada Real Estate Investments.

What of the forests?

New commercial and residential development in the form of increased highways and housing infrastructure creates fragmentation of forests, also known as ‘micro niches’ or ‘edge effects.’

The fragmentation creates edges that disturb many aspects of forest ecology. Humidity levels, sunlight amount, leaf litter content and thickness, bionutrient cycles, and countless other critical environmental factors are affected when these edges are created, thereby changing the overall ecology of the fragmented patch as well as the surrounding landscape. 

These effects have been shown to decrease species abundance and diversity in birds, mammals, and reptiles—among other classes of organisms, more and more scientists are concluding.

Even worse, increased forest edges can be a welcoming environment for highly destructive invasive species, such as the Emerald Ash Borer, a bug that thrives on these new, sunlight-rich areas and can cause billions of dollars in devastation to stands of native trees.

Another thing to consider as areas become more populated is the increased risk of vector-borne diseases transmitted between humans, according to the World Health Organization. More people equals more human contact.

Finally, consider that we have only so much water, land, and other natural resources to support increased population growth to our area. Known as ‘environmental carrying capacity,’ it is the point at which the pressures a population puts on its natural resources disrupt the steady state in the ecosystem.

“This concept is a set of ecological assessment tools that have been applied to evaluate sustainable levels of human population for the earth as a whole and for particular regions. Such evaluations are difficult, except for isolated populations at small scales,” according to a report by the Steinbrenner Institute for Environmental Education and Research at Carnegie Mellon University. 

Appalachia is certainly rich in natural resources, but do we have enough to handle increased numbers of people? How much is enough?

So Where Do We Go From Here?

More people certainly presents new opportunities for growth, tourism, even cultural opportunities.

“People understand things are changing, even if they don’t understand why,” says Dr. Jesse Keenan, formerly faculty of architecture at Harvard Graduate School of Design, now associate professor of real estate at Tulane University in New Orleans.

New people coming to an area means new culture coming in as well. “What people may not realize is that Appalachia has always been culture-rich in its own way, and bringing in new ideas and traditions can be a good thing,” Keenan said.  

Another benefit? Increased populations put pressure on cities to develop green spaces, improve efficiency in infrastructure, and provide better access to crucial services such as healthcare.

Greenville, South Carolina, is one such city, Keenan said. What was once a post-industrial brown space along Greenville’s riverfront has been developed and offers greenways for residents who want to get out and enjoy nature.

“A new wave of people coming in brings more money, more growth pressure, and more opportunities, but also environmental consequences,” he said.

The goal should be to find a way to assimilate newcomers while preserving the rich natural resources with as little environmental footprint as possible.

Back to ‘The Peaceful Side’

Mid-October in Townsend saw a few days of almost constant drizzle, most certainly the side effects of Hurricane Delta, according to the Weather Channel. 

It was annoying, of course, especially during peak color season when I would have rather gone out hiking than stay inside, or even fought the crowds for a scenic drive to check out the beautiful fall foliage.

As irritating as the rain was, I wasn’t even remotely worried about a full-blown hurricane reaching these parts. 

And I can live with that.